metaphortunate: (Default)
metaphortunate son ([personal profile] metaphortunate) wrote2017-06-23 06:30 am
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fatalism o' the day

I am not good at political predictions. And I hope I'm wrong about this. But I don't see how we can keep the ACA.

I mean, this is why Republicans have been swallowing Trump's shit, right? For the Supreme Court seats and the right to pass this enormous tax cut? Isn't this what they sold the republic for? If they don't pass it now, wouldn't that require them to decide to have given it all up for nothing? Wouldn't they be taking a huge personal hit to their own opinion of themselves, not to mention their own taxes, and their own donors, for no other reason than to help millions of people they've never personally met and would probably not like if they did meet? Humans are not super good at doing that kind of thing; the richer the worse, the more powerful the worse, and I just don't really see how I can expect these particular rich old powerful motherfuckers to transcend the limitations of their species at this moment in time.
noahgibbs: Me and my teddy bear at Karaoke after a day of RubyKaigi in HIroshima in 2017 (Default)

[personal profile] noahgibbs 2017-06-23 01:50 pm (UTC)(link)
At best, we can hope to convince them that repealing the ACA isn't the least-damaging *way* to pass a huge tax cut. If this gets shot down again, they may believe that it may make more sense to do a Bush-style direct tax cut or to get rid of some other major government entitlement.

It would be really, really nice not to lose the ACA. And while something else might have to die in its place... Dunno. A huge Trump tax cut by itself could have pretty good optics (for Republicans and, to some extent, centrists and moderates) and could save the ACA.

I agree that the Republicans currently look like they're going to push ACA repeal no matter how bad it looks... But they looked like that last time they backed down, too.
noahgibbs: Me and my teddy bear at Karaoke after a day of RubyKaigi in HIroshima in 2017 (Default)

[personal profile] noahgibbs 2017-06-23 01:53 pm (UTC)(link)
Another way to look at it: they would love to kill two birds with one stone by destroying Obama's legacy and passing a huge tax cut for the rich in one go. If they're convinced that would be hard, they could be willing to just kill *one* bird with one stone and pass the tax cut, separately.

Killing poor people isn't actually the point for them. They just don't care. If people like the Koch brothers get a huge tax cut, they don't necessarily *need* to kill poor people. And destroying Obama's legacy would be a nice partisan win for the Republicans, but it's not actually their first priority either.
phi: (Default)

[personal profile] phi 2017-06-23 02:08 pm (UTC)(link)
I unfortunately agree with your analysis. :(
cofax7: climbing on an abbey wall  (Default)

[personal profile] cofax7 2017-06-23 02:20 pm (UTC)(link)
I also don't understand why, if it fails, we won't continue fighting attempts to do this over and over for the next several years. They are not going to give up.
wild_irises: (Default)

[personal profile] wild_irises 2017-06-23 02:25 pm (UTC)(link)
Oh, I completely agree with this.

To [personal profile] metaphortunate's larger point, the only way we keep the ACA is if they cannot unify themselves, which is why their opponents are putting so much pressure on their weak points. Yes, this is their endgame, but they have so far proved way less capable of keeping their eyes on the prize than we feared they might (and way more capable than we hoped they might).

I personally think they would have had a better shot if they had gone through the Senate procedures with a bill people could read than they have with this farce, but we get to find out.
norah: Monkey King in challenging pose (Default)

[personal profile] norah 2017-06-23 06:36 pm (UTC)(link)
God, and if they get away with this they will do it with EVERYTHING.
kore: (Default)

[personal profile] kore 2017-06-24 09:47 pm (UTC)(link)
....yeah. They wanted the Supreme Court, and they wanted to undo Obamacare. Hell, I think what they really wanted was a magic time machine that would erase Obama's terms completely and why not throw us all back to 1957 while they were at it, but they'll settle for this. But I'll never forget fucking Boehner advising people to hold their nose and think of the Court. It doesn't matter that Trump is an insane manchild or Paul Ryan doesn't know how budgeting works or that half the gov't is now going dark while the other half is filled with sycophants or even moles and that global politics are now destablizing. Their throughline was getting the Supreme Court -- which is to say bluntly, undoing Roe v Wade -- and making Obamacare a hollow legacy. Blowing up the country is worth that to them. I don't know how exactly you reason with people like that.